🇲🇰 North Macedonia CPI Slows More Than Expected to 3.5%, Closing Door for July Rate Hike

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Key Takeaways

• June CPI inflation slowed more than expected to 3.5%, according to Newsmax reporting on July 14, 2026.
• The Conference Board stated on July 14, 2026 that June CPI closes the door for a July rate hike by the central bank.
• North Macedonia is joining the Vertical Gas Corridor project to secure diversified energy supply, per Scan TV on July 16, 2026.
• The European Commission reported on July 17, 2026 that neighboring Albania is seeing slowing growth with weakness in industry and agriculture.
• The Bank of Korea raised its interest rate for the first time since 2023 on July 16, 2026, signaling a global tightening trend.

The Data

SKOPJE — North Macedonia’s consumer price inflation slowed more sharply than economists expected in June, landing at 3.5%, according to Newsmax reporting on July 14, 2026. The lower-than-expected reading has effectively ruled out a rate increase at the central bank’s next meeting.

The June CPI figure represents a notable deceleration from prior months, though a full breakdown between core and headline inflation is not yet available from the State Statistical Office. The easing comes as food and energy price pressures moderate across the Balkan region.

The National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia had been under pressure to raise rates amid persistent inflation, but The Conference Board stated on July 14 that the June CPI data “closes the door for a July rate hike.” The central bank’s next policy decision is expected in the coming weeks.

GDP growth data for the second quarter has not yet been released by the State Statistical Office. However, the European Commission’s July 17 report on neighboring Albania noted “slowing growth” and weakness in industry and agriculture, suggesting broader regional headwinds.

Labour market data for June has not been published. The unemployment rate and wage growth figures will be key indicators for the central bank’s future policy path.

Energy Diversification Takes Center Stage

North Macedonia is moving ahead with the Vertical Gas Corridor project, as reported by Scan TV on July 16, 2026. The initiative aims to provide the country with “secure, diversified and competitive supply” of natural gas, reducing dependence on any single source.

This infrastructure project comes at a critical time. Energy costs have been a major driver of inflation across the region, and diversifying supply routes could help stabilize prices for households and businesses in the medium term. The project also aligns with European Union energy security goals.

What This Means

For households, the slowdown in inflation to 3.5% provides some relief at the grocery store and the pump, though prices remain elevated compared to two years ago. Mortgage rates are unlikely to rise in July given the central bank’s expected hold, offering stability for borrowers.

For businesses, borrowing costs should remain steady in the near term, which supports investment planning. However, input prices remain a concern, and companies in energy-intensive sectors will be watching the Vertical Gas Corridor developments closely for potential cost savings.

Outlook

The National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia is expected to hold its policy rate steady at its next meeting, with the June CPI data providing cover to wait for more data. The next inflation release from the State Statistical Office will be critical in determining whether the easing trend continues.

Analysts will be watching for second-quarter GDP data, due in the coming weeks, to assess whether the economy is maintaining momentum. Key risks include global energy price volatility and the health of trading partner economies in the region.

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Data sourced from State Statistical Office and National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia. Analysis by Economic Pulse Data Team.

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Edited by Editorial Desk. Fact-checked by Editorial Desk. This is analysis, not financial advice.