🇺🇿 Uzbekistan’s Inflation Cools to 6.4% as Growth Forecast Slows

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Key Takeaways

• Annual inflation slowed to 6.4% in September, down from 8% in 2025 (Daryo, 2026-10-06).
• The IMF forecasts GDP growth will ease from 7.8% to 5.7% by 2031 (IMF, 2026-10-22).
• The World Bank projects Uzbekistan will see the highest GDP growth in Central Asia (World Bank, 2026-10-06).
• Consumer price data was updated by the OECD on October 6, 2026 (OECD, 2026-10-06).
• GDP growth above expectations allowed the central bank to maintain a tight monetary policy (Kursiv Media, 2026-10-05).

The Data

TASHKENT — Uzbekistan’s economy is showing signs of stabilization as inflation pressures ease.

According to Daryo, annual inflation slowed to 6.4% in September.

This is a notable drop from the 8% rate recorded in 2025.

Headline consumer prices are coming under control.

The State Statistics Committee tracks these movements closely.

While some sectors may still see volatility, the overall trend points toward stability.

The OECD updated its consumer price data for the country on October 6, 2026.

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has kept interest rates high to fight those past price spikes.

Strong GDP growth gave policymakers room to hold their ground.

Kursiv Media reported on October 5 that the central bank maintained its tight monetary policy stance.

Economic expansion remains strong despite the cooling inflation.

The World Bank stated on October 6 that Uzbekistan is set for the highest GDP growth in Central Asia.

However, long-term projections suggest this pace will moderate.

The IMF noted on October 22 that growth is forecast to ease from 7.8% to 5.7% by 2031.

The labor market is responding to these shifts.

Euronews.com reported on October 20 that rising visitor numbers are driving job creation.

The government is targeting both employment and foreign investment to sustain this momentum.

Growth Trajectory Shifts

The most significant story for Uzbekistan right now is the transition from hyper-growth to sustainable expansion.

For years, the economy expanded at double-digit rates.

Now, it is settling into a more moderate but steady path.

This shift is not a sign of weakness.

It reflects a maturing economy.

The IMF’s projection of a drop to 5.7% growth by 2031 accounts for base effects.

It also considers structural changes in the workforce and capital availability.

The World Bank’s current optimism highlights the strength of the present cycle.

Investors are watching this pivot closely.

The UCI stock index reflects market sentiment on these changes.

A stable inflation rate of 6.4% supports business planning.

Companies can better predict costs when prices do not swing wildly.

What This Means

For households, lower inflation means less pressure on daily budgets.

The cost of living is rising more slowly than before.

Families can plan purchases with greater confidence.

However, mortgage rates remain high due to the central bank’s tight policy.

Businesses face a mixed environment.

Borrowing costs are still elevated.

This makes financing new projects expensive.

Yet, stable input prices help with margin management.

The rise in tourism provides a boost to service-sector firms.

Outlook

Looking ahead, the central bank will monitor inflation data carefully.

The next policy decision will depend on whether price stability holds.

Analysts expect a gradual easing of rates if inflation continues to fall.

Risks remain, including global energy prices and regional stability.

However, the current data suggests a controlled landing.

The combination of falling inflation and solid growth offers a positive near-term outlook for the UZS.

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Data sourced from State Statistics Committee () and Central Bank of Uzbekistan (). Analysis by Economic Pulse Data Team.

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Edited by Editorial Desk. Fact-checked by Editorial Desk. This is analysis, not financial advice.