Poland Holds Rates as NBP Forecasts 3.7% GDP Growth and 2.9% Inflation for 2026

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Key Takeaways

• GDP growth forecast at 3.7% for 2026, with inflation at 2.9%: NBP, July 10, 2026.
• Poland’s central bank held interest rates unchanged, but projects higher inflation in 2027: ING THINK, July 8, 2026.
• Poland’s nominal GDP rose by 6.4% in Q1 2026: CEO Magazyn, July 9, 2026.
• Central bank purchased 82 tons of gold this year: Bloomberg.com, July 9, 2026.
• Central bank head says inflation in Poland unlikely to grow significantly: Polska Agencja Prasowa SA, July 9, 2026.

The Data

WARSAW — Poland’s central bank, the National Bank of Poland (NBP), has revised its economic forecasts, now seeing GDP growth at 3.7% and inflation at 2.9% for 2026, according to a report by CEO Magazyn on July 10, 2026. While the bank left interest rates unchanged, it projects higher inflation in 2027, as reported by ING THINK on July 8, 2026.

The central bank’s governor stated that inflation in Poland is “unlikely to grow significantly,” per Polska Agencja Prasowa SA on July 9, 2026. However, the NBP noted that the ongoing West Asia conflict is raising inflation and weighing on Poland’s growth outlook, according to Menafn on July 10, 2026.

The NBP held its key interest rate steady at its July meeting. The next policy decision is scheduled for September 2026. The dovish signals from the central bank are putting pressure on the Polish zloty (PLN) outlook, as reported by TradingPedia on July 10, 2026.

Poland’s nominal GDP rose by 6.4% in the first quarter of 2026, according to CEO Magazyn on July 9, 2026. The NBP’s revised forecast of 3.7% real GDP growth for the full year suggests strong underlying momentum, though the West Asia conflict presents a downside risk.

No updated labour market data was available in the latest reports.

Central Bank Holds Rates as Inflation Risks Mount

The National Bank of Poland’s decision to hold rates steady comes as it juggles a slowing growth outlook against rising inflation pressures from the West Asia conflict. The central bank’s own forecasts show inflation at 2.9% in 2026, but the projection for 2027 is higher, according to ING THINK.

Despite the rate hold, the central bank has been actively diversifying reserves. The NBP purchased 82 tons of gold this year, as reported by Bloomberg.com on July 9, 2026, signaling a move to hedge against global uncertainty. The dovish stance has weakened the zloty, which could further fuel import prices.

What This Means

For Polish households, the unchanged interest rate means mortgage payments will stay at current levels. However, inflation at 2.9% in 2026 still outpaces wage growth in many sectors, squeezing real incomes. The central bank’s projection of higher inflation in 2027 suggests that cost-of-living pressures are not going away soon.

For businesses, borrowing costs remain elevated, and the weaker zloty is raising input prices for imported goods. The West Asia conflict adds uncertainty to supply chains and energy costs. The NBP’s revised GDP forecast of 3.7% growth offers some comfort, but the outlook is fragile.

Outlook

The next key data release will be the NBP’s inflation print for July, due in mid-August. The central bank’s next rate decision is in September 2026. The key risk remains the trajectory of the West Asia conflict, which could push inflation higher and force a policy rethink.

Analysts expect the NBP to hold rates through the rest of 2026, with the first potential cut in early 2027 if inflation moderates. The gold buying spree suggests the bank is preparing for a prolonged period of global uncertainty.

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Data sourced from Statistics Poland (GUS) and National Bank of Poland (NBP). Analysis by Economic Pulse Data Team.

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Edited by Editorial Desk. Fact-checked by Editorial Desk. This is analysis, not financial advice.